xxxx the one to beat in Flemington, writes Max Presnell
Incentivize was responsible for the final start of one of the most dominant Caulfield Cup successes of our time, which saw it soar into the Cup favorite at $ 2.30 last week before easing off. to the point that Waterhouse thinks the bag will net him around $ 3.50.
Informed opinions differ on short odds.
“Incentive $ 2.30 to win the Melbourne Cup?” Doubtful birth at 3200 meters by grouping 57kg. I wouldn’t take $ 2.30 a place. How stupid do bookies think we are, ”John Tutty wrote in a letter to Winning position.
However, Lawrence retorts that Dom Beirne, an acclaimed authority, estimates that the Queensland goalkeeper will win by 2 ½ lengths.
“Another good judge has it at $ 1.90,” he added. Waterhouse, however, is cautious.
“I think more of the lightweights,” said Waterhouse. “I actually love Lord Lucan [trained by Gai] more than my wife.
Lawrence sees Tralee Rose as the horse to beat for Incentivize, with the final stages possibly coming into play.
On the breeding score, positive and negative points can be gleaned from a pedigree. But the big ones overcome what stops the normal. Take another outstanding Queenslander, Gunsynd. The old ones will say that the gray Goondiwindi “never made two miles”. Of course, he wasn’t bred to run 1,600m either, but in the 1972 Melbourne Cup he climbed 60.5kg – 3.5kg more than Incentivize – and finished third behind Piping. Lane (48 kg) after being three and four wide everywhere. Considering an easier passage and Incentivise’s handicap, he would have managed the distance considerably better.
From the perspective of the local class, Verry Elleegant scores high and, in the opinion of racing.comDaniel O’Sullivan, his effort at Cox Plate was excellent: “I have long thought that Verry Elleegant is a real stayer and her best marks at 2400 meters and signs in these performances that she could be even more efficient further. Her run at last year’s Melbourne Cup from an impossible position was great and from what we’ve seen in the Cox Plate she can carry 57kg and be there with the best of the others behind. Incentivize this year.
Still, I vowed not to step into another local stayer in a Melbourne Cup that didn’t have a 2,400m lead after So You Think (2010) was unable to finish third at 3/1. Yeah, respect Chris Waller’s systems, but I don’t think she got the basics from last year when she scored in the Caulfield Cup.
My danger for Incentivize is Twilight Payment, a proven two-mile product benefiting from the involvement of Lloyd Williams, with another charge from Waller, Great House, a slight chance.
Maybe Incentivize is too short for comfort, but a trifecta might be the way to go. Meanwhile, Lawrence will miss every traditional racer’s thrill of being in Flemington for a Melbourne Cup racer. He will have to settle for a suite at the Beach Hotel in Byron Bay.
Verdict: Plus incentive to beat Twilight Payment and Great House.